PHIL NGUYEN

Those are my cash game results so far. Plus, I won a decent amount in tournaments too. It’s been a good year.

Autumn is my favorite season. Hello sweaters, jackets, and scarves. Goodbye shorts, flip flops, and T-shirts (sort of). The turning of the seasons also replaces New York’s dreadful humidity with the crisp, fresh air that I imagine the great Northwest to be like - though admittedly, I have never traveled farther than Northern California in my lifetime. I like the feeling of walking outside on a cool autumn day and temporarily losing your breath.

I’m also a blanket person. Even in the depths of summer, I used a light blanket. I like wrapping myself in blankets in the winter, like I’m a cocoon - or when I’m feeling dead inside, a mummy. I’m probably miserable to share a blanket with, as I am almost certain that I’d inevitably steal more than my fair share of the blanket. I think this contrasts with how I generally live on a daily basis.

I’m drinking this sparkling Malbec that I absolutely adore. I sampled it at a wine tasting not too long ago, and I’ve gone back to it a few times since. Most sparkling wines aren’t red (naturally), but this flavor is delicious. I prefer this to most champagnes.

Along the drink trail, I’ve been heavily experimenting with different cocktails. I use this small little notebook as a log for some things I’ve come up with. My refrigerator is stuffed with juice extracts and fresh fruit and vegetables and has no real food. This is becoming quite the quandary.

I was walking around the neighborhood the other day to go yard sale shopping. One old man had the deluxe version of Apples to Apples. And well, for $5, how could I resist? It’s probably the best game that not many people know about.

ANYWAY, like I had stated, I’ve been drinking wine as I’ve been typing this. My last thought is with regards to this season’s Project Runway. It sucks. Everyone cries and no one is really that good. They are all drama queens. Kenley is probably the best. I say that partially because she’s the most attractive, and is sort of a huge asshole, but assholes are cool, right? Right. She does design cool clothes though and uses awesome patterns and lives in grand old Brooklyn. Leanne is a wet blanket but is strangely giddy. I know some people like that in real life. I hate them all. Korto makes ugly clothes. The gay dude, he is boring but at least he’s somewhat talented. As a whole, this season has been a severe disappointment. But it’s ok because it’s autumn now, and everything is good this time of year.

One more thing: they should invent this for text messaging. I’d pay $1k for that.

Fantasy football is one of those things - politics, financial systems, sex - that not only causes people to over-inflate their own knowledge, but make them feel compelled to tell everyone about it. They think they know their stuff, but in reality, they know nothing at all. Sometimes, I wish that life was like a video game, and hovering over everyone’s head would be a graphic meter that measured everyone’s bullshit level. When they start talking about things like fantasy football, I would get to visually see the meter rise as if you dunked a thermometer into a heating pot of water.

Now, I don’t claim to know much about anything. In fact, I probably know relatively very little about politics or finance, and god knows I know nothing about sex. BUT, I am a fucking fantasy football expert. I would say that I am probably within the top 3 percentile of people that follow football and the math game associated with it. Fantasy sports has more to do with probability, expected value, variance, and team pairings than it does with knowing how tall Terrell Owens is (I’d guess 6′4″). The problem is, in my $1k money league, a third of the people are better than me, and the other two-thirds aren’t bad themselves. Put me in the office league that your dad works at, and I’d clean up more than a obsessive-compulsive cleaner at the nearest Chinese food restaurant.

ANYWAY, a quarter of the NFL season is gone. This is a good time to analyze the season. A 2 game stretch of good play could be an anomaly, but 4 games worth of data is a trend. If any of you are in any leagues, listen to my advice (especially if you are looking at trading), because it is pretty much the gospel. Here are some of my thoughts on the season thus far.

1. Jay Cutler is no fluke. He has a ton of weapons and the Denver defense got filleted by KC. He will be a top 5 QB by the end of the season and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he’s ahead of a familiar names, Peyton Manning and Donovon McNabb. Drew Brees is also the real deal for pretty much the same reasons. He’s a little riskier than Cutler because of all the Saint injuries (Colston, Shockey, Bush’s nagging problems), but Sean Payton is one of the best offensive coaches in the game, and Brees will heave the ball 50 times a game if necessary - they even threw a 60 yard bomb the other day while up by 19 in the 4th quarter. His yards per attempt stat is pretty outrageous considering how many dump off and swing passes they throw.

1a. I’d be wary of guys like Phillip Rivers and Kurt Warner. I think Rivers is just running on the good side of variance at the moment; his top receivers are Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson. Yikes. And eventually, SD will realize the key to winning will be handing the ball off to LT2. Easy game. Warner is … old and fragile. Odds he plays 14 games this season are like two to one.

2. Cincinnati, once a home for fantasy legends, has become a fantasy football obituary. Carson Palmer, as if things couldn’t get worse, might opt for elbow surgery to shelve him for the season. He’s no better than a risky low-end QB1 even if healthy. Something is not right with him. Chad Ocho Cinco was drafted as a top 15 WR, a little behind guys like Anquan Boldin, and a little ahead of Santana Moss. Both have had two games EACH this season that totals more fantasy points than Ocho Cinco’s entire season. TJ Housh has looked slow and defeated and I’d be surprised if he got to 1000 yards, 8 TDs. Their RBs have struggled mightily, even against a shoddy Cleveland defense. It’s a bad situation all around.

2a. Unsurprisingly, the WR landscape is littered with land-mines. Guys that were consensus top 10 at their position have become colossal busts for various reasons. Andre Johnson has more TD drops than catches. Braylon Edwards forgot how to catch a football in any situation. Marques Colston can’t put up big numbers if he’s not healthy enough to play. Randy Moss lost his Hall of Fame quarterback and any effort to run a good route. Picking receivers this year was like throwing a dart with a blindfold on.

3. Frank Gore is an absolute stud. He’s putting up 120 yards of total yards per game and has three scores. He fits the Martz offensive system like a glove and looks like a vintage Marshall Faulk. I’m going to say right now that Gore will lead all RBs in total yards (rushing and receiving) this year by at least 10%. I expect his offensive output to increase once Martz figures out even more ways to use him and because he plays in the cake division (NFC West), he has some tasty matchups coming up. He will also top 10 TDs this year. Pretty solid for a guy that was drafted around 11th in most leagues and in the mid second round in others (assuming standard 12 team league). If I had a guy like ADP, I’d trade him for maybe Gore and a low WR1 or high WR2 (Braylon Edwards?).

4. If you are a Larry Johnson owner, sell sell sell. His last game against Denver will be the best game he has all season. I’d offer him and perhaps your WR3 for a guy like Marshawn Lynch and call that a steal. I’d also sell high on guys like Michael Turner, Ronnie Brown, and Matt Forte. Some WRs to sell high? Santana Moss, Laverneus Coles, and Desean Jackson. I’d rather have Plaxico Burress than any of those guys.

5. Brandon Marshall is the best WR in the game at the moment and I don’t think it’s particularly close. There is a strong chance that B15 will finish in the top 3 in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. No matter how your league scoring is structured, that is fantasy gold. Some people mocked me for taking him as the 8th WR in our draft. Ironically, some of those guys are the guys that drafted WRs from point number 2a. After him, TO and Wayne are next in line. Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and Greg Jennings are in that next tier. Going forward, I like Smith the most out of that group (his rapport with Delhomme is great) and I’d be leery of Jennings if Aaron Rodgers misses any time. The Cardinal and Lion receivers will get theirs because their running attack is non-existent and like a dirty whore, they are always playing from behind.

And to put my money where my mouth is, I recently have upped the ante in my wagers.

In addition to my $1000 league entry fee with payouts of $6k/$3k/$2k + $1k for high total points, I’ve made some side bets.

$500 with Luckybacon, total points.
$500 with AAismyfriend, total points and I get a 35 point handicap.
$200 with Triumph44, week 4, which I won already.
$200 with AAismyfriend, week 5, which is this week.

I hope I’m on the right side of variance.

When I was young, I thought monsters lived underneath my bed. The nightlight kept them away, of course, and the reason I still go to bed with my computer monitor on is probably no coincidence.

I learned to combat my trembling fear of the boogie monster by reading folk tales at night. They gave me courage and it’s probably the most influential thing in my life today. I’m happy that I have self taught a lot of my own moral values and ethics - or lack thereof - rather than turn to other pillars of society: religion, parents, normalcy.

One of my favorite stories is that of the Three Little Pigs, and I’ll do my best to tell it to the best of my memory.

Once upon a time, there were three little pigs that were ready to leave their mother and enter the world. Before they left, their mother told them, “no matter what, you should always try to do the best you can, even if it takes more work.”

The first little pig built his house out of straw. It was the easiest decision and he spent the rest of the afternoon rolling around in the mud.

The second little pig built his house out of sticks. It took a little more thought and a little more effort. But soon enough, he too was done and rolled around in the mud that day.

The third little pig built his house out of bricks. But by then, he was too tired to play. Instead, he drank all night with his buddy Stethers.

Later that night, the big bad wolf came to town. On this particular night, the wolf was craving pork chops. He found the house of the first little piggy, because he knows that you should always first go attack the sub-prime mortgaged house.

“Come out, you fat lazy pig! Or I will huff and puff and blow your house down.”

“Not by the hair of my chinny chin chin!,” the little pig said.

Unfortunately, the little pig didn’t realize that the wolf had recently befriended Robert Downey Jr. So he hugged and puffed, and well, he blew the house down. And he ate the pig.

Still hungry, the wolf found the second little pigs house.

“Come out, come out, etc etc”

“Chinny chin etc etc”

And he blew the house down. And he ate the pig.

He went to the third little pig’s house. Remember, this was the pig that took his time and built his house out of bricks. Little did the wolf know was that the third little pig was this very skinny asian pig so he probably wouldn’t have tasted good anyway.

“Come out, come out, etc etc”

“Chinny chin etc etc”

And he huffed and he puffed but wait! He couldn’t blow the house down.

The wolf was pissed. He tried a second time. Nothing. In his last ditch effort, he tried climbing into the chimney of this rich pig’s mansion. But not only did the third pig build his house out of bricks, but he safeguarded the other entrance with a large pot of boiling water. The wolf fell into the pot and sadly, he died.

Afterwards, news about the third little pig’s house had spread. The wolf and the sub-prime mortgages were never to be seen again. And then, the rest of the town lived happily ever after.

I saw My Bloody Valentine on Tuesday. I must say, it’s like nothing I’ve ever been too. It’s the first show where I’ve had the wind knocked out of my from just being there. Scott says it best: it’s like standing 20 feet being the engine of a Boeing 757. You can actually feel the sound waves hitting your body. I was really skeptical as to why they would hand out ear plugs before you enter. I now understand. I ate brownies beforehand and at moments, I was immersed in the sound and light show. I don’t think I knew who I was or where I was at. It was awesome, to be sure.

I still haven’t bought Girl Talk tickets yet. He sold out in like two weeks and I couldn’t find time on my schedule to get them. As a result, I will have to resort to Stub Hub and overpay by 500%. Thats OK, though, because Girl Talk is completely worth it, and if it’s similar to his performance at APW, then I will be a happy camper.

Poker has been going well recently. So much so that I’m considering this epic dinner. It’s one of those things that only happens once in a decade or so, and probably the only point in my life that I’ll have disposable income to go (read: no real responsibilities). Still, it’s a pretty penny and I could do other fun things instead. Like travel.

Speaking of travel, I want to try to qualify for some European Poker Tour events. In particular, I’d like to make it to Prague, Copenhagen, or San Remo. I think I’ll definitely try to make to the event in the Bahamas because that is somewhat large in the poker community. C’mon poker gods! Give me some tournament luck please.