Round By Round Analysis

1.9 Calvin Johnson: this was by far the weirdest start to a draft I’ve ever been in. I’ve been in numerous leagues in past years and I’ve done my fair share of mock drafts but I was pretty much at loss with this pick. The league is standard scoring with bonuses for 100/200 yard games as well as 50+ yard plays. QB TDs were also worth 6 points rather than the customary 4. Anyway, Brees went third overall which was definitely high and Fitzgerald went at 5 which caused a huge WR run. Andre Johnson and Moss went off next so I was left in a weird spot at 9. I’ve been stressing to pretty much everyone I talk to about fantasy football the importance of a “number 1″ WR this year, especially because of the fall off from elite to above average WRs and the amount of mid round RB depth. Still, I had a tough choice. On my personal draft rankings, Steven Jackson and Chris Johnson were still on the board, two guys I have ranked higher than Megatron. I felt that if I went with a RB here, I’d probably end up taking a guy like Slaton in round 2. I’m nearly certain that Megatron would go next and there was a fair chance that Roddy White would be gone too. I figured as much as I would liked to have a Chris Johnson/Steve Slaton combo, I didn’t want to get shut out on a elite receiver. So I reached for Megatron and hoped someone would fall to me in the next round.

2.4 Steven Jackson: Merry Christmas to me. Somehow, Tomlinson, Westbrook and DeAngelo Williams are taken giving me my two choices I was contemplating earlier! I have Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson ranked almost identically, with 424 having a bit more upside. However, I’m concerned about the Tennessee offense this year and how he’ll deal with a heavier workload. I ended up taking Jackson who is quite a bit safer and should produce 1200 rushing yards, 400 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. I think he’ll bounce back from last year and produce high RB1 numbers. THAT SAID, in retrospect, I think I should’ve gambled on 424 because his potential is enormous and this league does favor big plays. Either way, it’s marginal. Also, I briefly considered going with another elite receiver here (White or Jennings) but I couldn’t pass up RB1 value and going with a high variance WR-WR strategy heavily negates my edge in this soft league.

3.9 Anquan Boldin: I took about 3 seconds to make this pick as I was praying he’d fall to me as I watched guys draft ahead. I think this is a pretty good steal. The past three seasons in games were he and Fitzgerald have played in the same game, they have nearly identical stats. Of course, Boldin has injury concern but that’s a risk I’m willing to take. I think that if he stays healthy, he has the ability to outperform his teammate and be a top 5 wideout. I love this pick.

4.4 Dwayne Bowe This was a pretty easy pick for me. Nothing was available at RB that I really wanted. I like Kevin Smith more than most but I had planned from the beginning to try to get big time WRs and then have a “RB2 by committee” approach and play matchups since there were some RBs left on the board that I can wait for. Bowe could end up being a monster if he gets adequate QB play. And since KC is pretty terrible and are going to air it out a ton this year, I like this pick tons.

5.9 Ray Rice: I would have loved if Smith dropped but he went a few slots earlier, along with McFadden. I planned on not getting QBs until late so I knew that I was going to spend this and the next wraparound pick on two mid level RBs. I went with Rice first because I thought he had a better chance of being picked by someone behind me since he’s been getting a ton of press recently. This might have not been great value in according to ADP principles but it’s a pick I needed to make and plus, he’s a Rutgers guy!

6.4 Marshawn Lynch: After a few people make very questionable WR2 picks (Holmes, Hester, Breaston), I am thrilled to take Lynch with this pick. The past two years, he’s been a top 15ish RB even though he’s missed games for various reasons. Of course, he dropped because of his three game suspension this year, but I think it’s a great stashed pick for me. Pretty much there is all upside and very little downside here for a RB3. I considered Knowshon Moreno but I couldn’t pass up a guy who would be picked in the top 30 if he was set to go from day 1.

7.9 Chris Beanie Wells: I’d have liked Moreno here but he went 2 spots above me. That’s ok though because Wells has really impressed in preseason and should perform well in the high octane Arizona offense. I imagine him getting at least 15 carries a game going forward with potential for more.

8.4 Antonio Bryant: I still don’t have a QB or TE yet and I still didn’t with this pick. I just couldn’t pass up massive value here (sense a theme?). This league seemed very soft with people taking kickers and mid level TE like Cooley in the 6th round. Little do they know that RB and WR depth is dominant. I beefed up my already stellar WR group with Antonio Bryant, a guy who had a real breakout season last year and through the last quarter of the season, he quietly scored like the fourth most points among WRs. I compare him a lot to Roddy White last year (who I struck gold on). He’s a guy that exploded at the end of a season when a lot of people were either not paying attention or forgot about and a guy that if he “gets it” this year, could be in for a big year. For a WR4, he’s better than many teams’ WR2 and I’m thrilled with this pick.

9.9 Derrick Ward: This could’ve been a mistake of a pick if I want to be results-oriented. As stated, I still didn’t have a QB and the guy I was targeting (Carson Palmer) was still available. I scanned peoples’ rosters and everyone had a QB so I didn’t think anyone would grab a backup right now so I decided to wait. Ward is 6th round value and I think he’ll be productive this year. The downside is that he has very little upside. And since I was stocked with RB depth, I should’ve gone with QB here. Oh well.

10.4 Ben Roesthlisberger: Carson Palmer went before me and had me cursing all over. Now I have a low upside QB2 as a QB1. This could be problematic so hopefully I’ll try to scour the trade market during the season. I didn’t have many options at this point and I planned to pair a safe QB2 with a high risk QB2, so I went with the safe option first. Big Ben has also looked tremendous in preseason so hopefully he’ll be solid, if not spectacular for me.

11.9 Owen Daniels: This was my target all along at TE and I’m glad to have him. He’ll put up better numbers than many bigger named players. I never planned on getting a top tier TE because there is so much depth this year at the position. I expect him to be around the 7-10th ranked TE this year.

12.4 Eagles DST: About half the teams had already taken defense and special teams and somehow the Eagles were still on the board. I have them ranked as the fourth best so this was a pretty easy pick for me. What people don’t realize with DST is that fumbles, DEF touchdowns, and special teams TDs are pretty much all variance. What is consistent from year to year though are sacks and interceptions, two things the Eagles high pressure defense does very well.

13.9 Fred Jackson: It’s weird taking a RB2 “handcuff” but he is much more useful for me. For one, he’s starting the first 3 weeks. Secondly, even when splitting time, he’s a RB3 bye week filler. I think it’s a sneaky pick and with Lynch’s history with the law, I would not be shocked if he were suspended for more unscrupulous activity. Also of note, I was tossing the idea of drafting Favre here but he went a few spots ahead of this.

14.4 Trent Edwards: Again, this was a questionable pick for me. I heavily considered Garrard with this pick but I have some hope that Edwards can break out here. It takes QBs a few years to get adapted and coming from Stanford, he’s certainly a smart fellow with an accurate arm. He will benefit from TO, not from the direct value, but because he’ll open the field up for guys like Lee Evans. I think those two could be this year’s Jennings and Driver with, guess who, Edwards playing the role of Aaron Rodgers.

15.9 Kenny Britt: Pretty much a homer pick since I love all Rutgers players. But you never know, apparently Washington is out a few games so Britt will indeed by starting and hopefully keeping it.

16.4 Kris Brown: Kicker, whatever.

Team Analysis

QB: Ben Roethlisberger, Trent Edwards
RB: Steven Jackson, Ray Rice, Marshawn Lynch, Beanie Wells, Derrick Ward, Fred Jackson
WR: Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Dwayne Bowe, Antonio Bryant, Kenny Britt
TE: Owen Daniels
K: Kris Brown
DEF/ST: Eagles

My QBs are poor, perhaps the worst in the league but I’m going to try to maneuver a trade. There are guys with a few quality QB options so I’ll look at them first, especially if those teams get off to poor starts. My RB group is solid. Jackson is a prime RB1 and I just need one of the 3 RB2s to step up and I think I’ll field an above average RB lineup. My WRs are the best in the league. I have an elite WR1, a low end WR1 with high end WR1 upside, and two solid WR2s. That is pretty awesome and that has me so confident for this seasons. I think I have an average TE, and an average kicker, and above average defense. Overall, I’m thrilled with this draft. From scanning other teams’ rosters, I think there are only two that can challenge me.

Addendum: I wasn’t going to mention how this wonderful situation fell into my lap, but was told I would be a “huge asshole” if I didn’t, though I’m not sure that’s the case anyway. Long story short, KSK knows someone who knows someone who is the vice president at the Borgata. So ship the free $2000/night suite. This will be the last time I cater to anyone’s request on this blog, but this may (?) be well deserved. People always say it’s not what you know, but who you know. I think that phrase is fucking stupid. But maybe those people are on to something.

ANYWAY, the reason I’m in Atlantic City for the night is because I saw Girl Talk again. This is the third time in the past two weeks and I cannot say that I am disappointed. The Pool at Harrah’s isn’t the greatest venue, I don’t think, but it definitely was not the same old club scene that I feel Girl Talk is accustomed too. The acoustics were lacking, but you didn’t have to be an audiophile to enjoy this show. He played a completely different setlist when I saw him earlier this month and back in August, and I’m not sure I like the newer stuff too much but that’s usually to be expected when you want to hear things you are familiar with.

I did not gamble much this trip. I threw dice for maybe an hour which resulted in a small profit. Cutting off my session short was most likely a good move however as I was pretty intoxicated and not very coherent at the time. I don’t think I’m a world beater by any means, but I am probably an above average dice shooter. My only roll last night (early this morning?) lasted for about twenty minutes, and I scored three points and other various money making rolls. Some fine gentlemen were kind enough to tip me, which I didn’t think was warranted since I didn’t even shoot entirely well, but I’ll take any buck I can get! I don’t think anyone else at the table scored a point while I was there. That is fairly frustrating but what can ya do.

Casinos are a very strange place. It’s a bizarre mixture of old people, degenerates, and young people looking to get drunk on the cheap. These people are on the bottom tier of the hierarchy of life. In fact, I couldn’t name other demographics that I’d want to be around any less. Of course, my profession is that of a professional gambler so I’m not sure how much standing I have on that. I’m going to quit this blog now since my room service is soon to be arriving! Is french toast the best thing for a hangover cure? We will see!

There are five floors in my apartment building. The bottom floor is just the lobby, and each of the other floors house one apartment each. Because of this, pretty every knows everyone else. Well, I should correct myself. Everyone knows me. I’m too loud, too busy, and too drunk. I embody the image of someone you don’t want to have in a quaint neighborhood like mine. The lady on the second floor is an executive producer for the show Iron Chef. She also manages one of Bobby Flay’s restaurant. Once, she yelled at me for dropping cigarrette buds and a vomit-stained shirt on her terrace. The couple of the third floor are not around very much. I once ran into them in the elevator and they told me they cycle between three apartments around the world, and this is their New York location. I don’t know exactly what they do for a living, but they sure seem important. The couple on the fourth floor works from home. They have a Bichon Frise that yips every few seconds. In the summer when the windows are open, I can hear this satonic dog barking for hours. Whenever I see the dog in the elevator, he tries to bite me. I often dream about throwing an arsenic-laced bone down to their balcony. ANYWAY, I’ve been seeing this three year old child and a single parent often wandering around the building. Clearly, this throttles my every day normality and the Sherlock Holmes of me has to emerge. Apparently, the third floor couple had to sublet their floor while they weren’t around because of the financial crunch. Moral of the story: The ecomony - it affects us all.

For the past few months, I’ve been compiling essays on why human behavior is what it is. I am in the camp that believes most things that happen are linear. That is, A + B = C. Because this logic exists in the world, societal patterns can be inferred from simple human assumptions. I don’t know what sparked this, but I have too much free time on my hands and crazy ideas float into my crazy head. I’m not sure what exactly I’m going to do with these amateur pieces of writing, but one option I am mulling is making a category of them for this blog. I am reticent to do so because I’m sure many of my opinions are wrong (yes, I realize that opinions cannot inherent by “right” or “wrong” but these things are decided by people beyond my scope of control). But it’s definitely an option. That or they can sit as a digital file on my computer shuttered from the world to judge. Moral of the story: If a tree falls in the forest, and no one hears, it doesn’t make a sound.

I am pleased with Apple’s new line of Macbooks, Macbook Pros, and 24″ cinema displays. Though, I’m not purchasing any of them, it is definitely a step in the right direction and it seems that their market share will continue to increase.

This is definitive proof that people are, indeed, very stupid. I don’t think the book is all that great to be honest - I think pretty much everyone is categorized as a douchebag. It’s more geared towards bad comedy than its blog counterpart (you can google that, since I’m lazy). The blog is fairly academic and makes some valid points about the evolution of men, but the book moves away from that ideology which is upsetting.

Malcolm Gladwell is fantastic, and his ruminations about different kinds of geniuses is worth the read if you have some spare time. It’s kind of academic at points, so skimming through part of it isn’t a big deal - but definitely check it out. It’s not too late for me to realize my own self genius! I especially enjoyed the bits about how Mark Twain and how he wrote Huck Finn.

I made a trade in fantasy football. I gave up the touchdown machine Jonathon Stewart in order to acquire the injured Joseph Addai. I already rostered Addai’s backup Dominic Rhodes, so that makes the trade a little less risky. Since the Indianapolis coaching is staff is notoriously coy about their injury reports, there is a fair possibility that Addai’s injury is more serious than currently being let on. But anytime you get a chance to add a featured top 10 running back on a pretty strong offense, you jump on it. My current roster is pretty robust for a 12 team league:

QB: Romo, Delhomme
RB: Westbrook, Addai, Rhodes, Buckhalter, Charles
WR: Marshall, R. White, M. Jones, A. Bryant, Avery
TE: Clark
K: K. Brown
DEF: NY Giants

If I can get some of these guys healthy, I am very excited about the prospects of this season. I have an excellent receiving corp. Marshall is a top 3 fantasy receiver, and White would probably be redrafted in the 7-10 range. My depth there is not bad either, as the other three are definitely serviceable. I like my set of running backs too. I crushed this week thanks to strong performances by Avery and Westbrook, so now I stand at 5-3, but with the second most points in my league.

I want to buy a Cavalier King Charles Spaniel. Here is a baby boy pictured below. This breed is playful and easy to maintain. Perfect for me.

I probably have to wait on that for a little while. I’m concerned about house training a dog in the winter and that whole transition of becoming a pet owner, so this will probably have to wait until the spring, but gosh, I am excited.

Those are my cash game results so far. Plus, I won a decent amount in tournaments too. It’s been a good year.

I’m also a blanket person. Even in the depths of summer, I used a light blanket. I like wrapping myself in blankets in the winter, like I’m a cocoon - or when I’m feeling dead inside, a mummy. I’m probably miserable to share a blanket with, as I am almost certain that I’d inevitably steal more than my fair share of the blanket. I think this contrasts with how I generally live on a daily basis.

I’m drinking this sparkling Malbec that I absolutely adore. I sampled it at a wine tasting not too long ago, and I’ve gone back to it a few times since. Most sparkling wines aren’t red (naturally), but this flavor is delicious. I prefer this to most champagnes.

Along the drink trail, I’ve been heavily experimenting with different cocktails. I use this small little notebook as a log for some things I’ve come up with. My refrigerator is stuffed with juice extracts and fresh fruit and vegetables and has no real food. This is becoming quite the quandary.

I was walking around the neighborhood the other day to go yard sale shopping. One old man had the deluxe version of Apples to Apples. And well, for $5, how could I resist? It’s probably the best game that not many people know about.

ANYWAY, like I had stated, I’ve been drinking wine as I’ve been typing this. My last thought is with regards to this season’s Project Runway. It sucks. Everyone cries and no one is really that good. They are all drama queens. Kenley is probably the best. I say that partially because she’s the most attractive, and is sort of a huge asshole, but assholes are cool, right? Right. She does design cool clothes though and uses awesome patterns and lives in grand old Brooklyn. Leanne is a wet blanket but is strangely giddy. I know some people like that in real life. I hate them all. Korto makes ugly clothes. The gay dude, he is boring but at least he’s somewhat talented. As a whole, this season has been a severe disappointment. But it’s ok because it’s autumn now, and everything is good this time of year.

One more thing: they should invent this for text messaging. I’d pay $1k for that.

Now, I don’t claim to know much about anything. In fact, I probably know relatively very little about politics or finance, and god knows I know nothing about sex. BUT, I am a fucking fantasy football expert. I would say that I am probably within the top 3 percentile of people that follow football and the math game associated with it. Fantasy sports has more to do with probability, expected value, variance, and team pairings than it does with knowing how tall Terrell Owens is (I’d guess 6′4″). The problem is, in my $1k money league, a third of the people are better than me, and the other two-thirds aren’t bad themselves. Put me in the office league that your dad works at, and I’d clean up more than a obsessive-compulsive cleaner at the nearest Chinese food restaurant.

ANYWAY, a quarter of the NFL season is gone. This is a good time to analyze the season. A 2 game stretch of good play could be an anomaly, but 4 games worth of data is a trend. If any of you are in any leagues, listen to my advice (especially if you are looking at trading), because it is pretty much the gospel. Here are some of my thoughts on the season thus far.

1. Jay Cutler is no fluke. He has a ton of weapons and the Denver defense got filleted by KC. He will be a top 5 QB by the end of the season and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he’s ahead of a familiar names, Peyton Manning and Donovon McNabb. Drew Brees is also the real deal for pretty much the same reasons. He’s a little riskier than Cutler because of all the Saint injuries (Colston, Shockey, Bush’s nagging problems), but Sean Payton is one of the best offensive coaches in the game, and Brees will heave the ball 50 times a game if necessary - they even threw a 60 yard bomb the other day while up by 19 in the 4th quarter. His yards per attempt stat is pretty outrageous considering how many dump off and swing passes they throw.

1a. I’d be wary of guys like Phillip Rivers and Kurt Warner. I think Rivers is just running on the good side of variance at the moment; his top receivers are Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson. Yikes. And eventually, SD will realize the key to winning will be handing the ball off to LT2. Easy game. Warner is … old and fragile. Odds he plays 14 games this season are like two to one.

2. Cincinnati, once a home for fantasy legends, has become a fantasy football obituary. Carson Palmer, as if things couldn’t get worse, might opt for elbow surgery to shelve him for the season. He’s no better than a risky low-end QB1 even if healthy. Something is not right with him. Chad Ocho Cinco was drafted as a top 15 WR, a little behind guys like Anquan Boldin, and a little ahead of Santana Moss. Both have had two games EACH this season that totals more fantasy points than Ocho Cinco’s entire season. TJ Housh has looked slow and defeated and I’d be surprised if he got to 1000 yards, 8 TDs. Their RBs have struggled mightily, even against a shoddy Cleveland defense. It’s a bad situation all around.

2a. Unsurprisingly, the WR landscape is littered with land-mines. Guys that were consensus top 10 at their position have become colossal busts for various reasons. Andre Johnson has more TD drops than catches. Braylon Edwards forgot how to catch a football in any situation. Marques Colston can’t put up big numbers if he’s not healthy enough to play. Randy Moss lost his Hall of Fame quarterback and any effort to run a good route. Picking receivers this year was like throwing a dart with a blindfold on.

3. Frank Gore is an absolute stud. He’s putting up 120 yards of total yards per game and has three scores. He fits the Martz offensive system like a glove and looks like a vintage Marshall Faulk. I’m going to say right now that Gore will lead all RBs in total yards (rushing and receiving) this year by at least 10%. I expect his offensive output to increase once Martz figures out even more ways to use him and because he plays in the cake division (NFC West), he has some tasty matchups coming up. He will also top 10 TDs this year. Pretty solid for a guy that was drafted around 11th in most leagues and in the mid second round in others (assuming standard 12 team league). If I had a guy like ADP, I’d trade him for maybe Gore and a low WR1 or high WR2 (Braylon Edwards?).

4. If you are a Larry Johnson owner, sell sell sell. His last game against Denver will be the best game he has all season. I’d offer him and perhaps your WR3 for a guy like Marshawn Lynch and call that a steal. I’d also sell high on guys like Michael Turner, Ronnie Brown, and Matt Forte. Some WRs to sell high? Santana Moss, Laverneus Coles, and Desean Jackson. I’d rather have Plaxico Burress than any of those guys.

5. Brandon Marshall is the best WR in the game at the moment and I don’t think it’s particularly close. There is a strong chance that B15 will finish in the top 3 in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. No matter how your league scoring is structured, that is fantasy gold. Some people mocked me for taking him as the 8th WR in our draft. Ironically, some of those guys are the guys that drafted WRs from point number 2a. After him, TO and Wayne are next in line. Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and Greg Jennings are in that next tier. Going forward, I like Smith the most out of that group (his rapport with Delhomme is great) and I’d be leery of Jennings if Aaron Rodgers misses any time. The Cardinal and Lion receivers will get theirs because their running attack is non-existent and like a dirty whore, they are always playing from behind.

And to put my money where my mouth is, I recently have upped the ante in my wagers.

In addition to my $1000 league entry fee with payouts of $6k/$3k/$2k + $1k for high total points, I’ve made some side bets.

$500 with Luckybacon, total points.
$500 with AAismyfriend, total points and I get a 35 point handicap.
$200 with Triumph44, week 4, which I won already.
$200 with AAismyfriend, week 5, which is this week.

I hope I’m on the right side of variance.