PHIL NGUYEN

I’ve left this blog absent for quite some time now. I don’t think I’ll be posting too much real stuff from now on, but I do want to have a record of some personal thoughts regarding my fantasy football leagues. I’m in a 3 leagues this year: a $1000 MSNL league, a $300 Deuces Cracked league, and a $200 Blue Ribbon league. I drafted for my BR league last night and I want to detail some of my thought processes as well as acknowledge some mistakes I made in order to prevent them next time, where my competition will surely be tougher.

Round By Round Analysis

1.9 Calvin Johnson: this was by far the weirdest start to a draft I’ve ever been in. I’ve been in numerous leagues in past years and I’ve done my fair share of mock drafts but I was pretty much at loss with this pick. The league is standard scoring with bonuses for 100/200 yard games as well as 50+ yard plays. QB TDs were also worth 6 points rather than the customary 4. Anyway, Brees went third overall which was definitely high and Fitzgerald went at 5 which caused a huge WR run. Andre Johnson and Moss went off next so I was left in a weird spot at 9. I’ve been stressing to pretty much everyone I talk to about fantasy football the importance of a “number 1″ WR this year, especially because of the fall off from elite to above average WRs and the amount of mid round RB depth. Still, I had a tough choice. On my personal draft rankings, Steven Jackson and Chris Johnson were still on the board, two guys I have ranked higher than Megatron. I felt that if I went with a RB here, I’d probably end up taking a guy like Slaton in round 2. I’m nearly certain that Megatron would go next and there was a fair chance that Roddy White would be gone too. I figured as much as I would liked to have a Chris Johnson/Steve Slaton combo, I didn’t want to get shut out on a elite receiver. So I reached for Megatron and hoped someone would fall to me in the next round.

2.4 Steven Jackson: Merry Christmas to me. Somehow, Tomlinson, Westbrook and DeAngelo Williams are taken giving me my two choices I was contemplating earlier! I have Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson ranked almost identically, with 424 having a bit more upside. However, I’m concerned about the Tennessee offense this year and how he’ll deal with a heavier workload. I ended up taking Jackson who is quite a bit safer and should produce 1200 rushing yards, 400 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. I think he’ll bounce back from last year and produce high RB1 numbers. THAT SAID, in retrospect, I think I should’ve gambled on 424 because his potential is enormous and this league does favor big plays. Either way, it’s marginal. Also, I briefly considered going with another elite receiver here (White or Jennings) but I couldn’t pass up RB1 value and going with a high variance WR-WR strategy heavily negates my edge in this soft league.

3.9 Anquan Boldin: I took about 3 seconds to make this pick as I was praying he’d fall to me as I watched guys draft ahead. I think this is a pretty good steal. The past three seasons in games were he and Fitzgerald have played in the same game, they have nearly identical stats. Of course, Boldin has injury concern but that’s a risk I’m willing to take. I think that if he stays healthy, he has the ability to outperform his teammate and be a top 5 wideout. I love this pick.

4.4 Dwayne Bowe This was a pretty easy pick for me. Nothing was available at RB that I really wanted. I like Kevin Smith more than most but I had planned from the beginning to try to get big time WRs and then have a “RB2 by committee” approach and play matchups since there were some RBs left on the board that I can wait for. Bowe could end up being a monster if he gets adequate QB play. And since KC is pretty terrible and are going to air it out a ton this year, I like this pick tons.

5.9 Ray Rice: I would have loved if Smith dropped but he went a few slots earlier, along with McFadden. I planned on not getting QBs until late so I knew that I was going to spend this and the next wraparound pick on two mid level RBs. I went with Rice first because I thought he had a better chance of being picked by someone behind me since he’s been getting a ton of press recently. This might have not been great value in according to ADP principles but it’s a pick I needed to make and plus, he’s a Rutgers guy!

6.4 Marshawn Lynch: After a few people make very questionable WR2 picks (Holmes, Hester, Breaston), I am thrilled to take Lynch with this pick. The past two years, he’s been a top 15ish RB even though he’s missed games for various reasons. Of course, he dropped because of his three game suspension this year, but I think it’s a great stashed pick for me. Pretty much there is all upside and very little downside here for a RB3. I considered Knowshon Moreno but I couldn’t pass up a guy who would be picked in the top 30 if he was set to go from day 1.

7.9 Chris Beanie Wells: I’d have liked Moreno here but he went 2 spots above me. That’s ok though because Wells has really impressed in preseason and should perform well in the high octane Arizona offense. I imagine him getting at least 15 carries a game going forward with potential for more.

8.4 Antonio Bryant: I still don’t have a QB or TE yet and I still didn’t with this pick. I just couldn’t pass up massive value here (sense a theme?). This league seemed very soft with people taking kickers and mid level TE like Cooley in the 6th round. Little do they know that RB and WR depth is dominant. I beefed up my already stellar WR group with Antonio Bryant, a guy who had a real breakout season last year and through the last quarter of the season, he quietly scored like the fourth most points among WRs. I compare him a lot to Roddy White last year (who I struck gold on). He’s a guy that exploded at the end of a season when a lot of people were either not paying attention or forgot about and a guy that if he “gets it” this year, could be in for a big year. For a WR4, he’s better than many teams’ WR2 and I’m thrilled with this pick.

9.9 Derrick Ward: This could’ve been a mistake of a pick if I want to be results-oriented. As stated, I still didn’t have a QB and the guy I was targeting (Carson Palmer) was still available. I scanned peoples’ rosters and everyone had a QB so I didn’t think anyone would grab a backup right now so I decided to wait. Ward is 6th round value and I think he’ll be productive this year. The downside is that he has very little upside. And since I was stocked with RB depth, I should’ve gone with QB here. Oh well.

10.4 Ben Roesthlisberger: Carson Palmer went before me and had me cursing all over. Now I have a low upside QB2 as a QB1. This could be problematic so hopefully I’ll try to scour the trade market during the season. I didn’t have many options at this point and I planned to pair a safe QB2 with a high risk QB2, so I went with the safe option first. Big Ben has also looked tremendous in preseason so hopefully he’ll be solid, if not spectacular for me.

11.9 Owen Daniels: This was my target all along at TE and I’m glad to have him. He’ll put up better numbers than many bigger named players. I never planned on getting a top tier TE because there is so much depth this year at the position. I expect him to be around the 7-10th ranked TE this year.

12.4 Eagles DST: About half the teams had already taken defense and special teams and somehow the Eagles were still on the board. I have them ranked as the fourth best so this was a pretty easy pick for me. What people don’t realize with DST is that fumbles, DEF touchdowns, and special teams TDs are pretty much all variance. What is consistent from year to year though are sacks and interceptions, two things the Eagles high pressure defense does very well.

13.9 Fred Jackson: It’s weird taking a RB2 “handcuff” but he is much more useful for me. For one, he’s starting the first 3 weeks. Secondly, even when splitting time, he’s a RB3 bye week filler. I think it’s a sneaky pick and with Lynch’s history with the law, I would not be shocked if he were suspended for more unscrupulous activity. Also of note, I was tossing the idea of drafting Favre here but he went a few spots ahead of this.

14.4 Trent Edwards: Again, this was a questionable pick for me. I heavily considered Garrard with this pick but I have some hope that Edwards can break out here. It takes QBs a few years to get adapted and coming from Stanford, he’s certainly a smart fellow with an accurate arm. He will benefit from TO, not from the direct value, but because he’ll open the field up for guys like Lee Evans. I think those two could be this year’s Jennings and Driver with, guess who, Edwards playing the role of Aaron Rodgers.

15.9 Kenny Britt: Pretty much a homer pick since I love all Rutgers players. But you never know, apparently Washington is out a few games so Britt will indeed by starting and hopefully keeping it.

16.4 Kris Brown: Kicker, whatever.

Team Analysis

QB: Ben Roethlisberger, Trent Edwards
RB: Steven Jackson, Ray Rice, Marshawn Lynch, Beanie Wells, Derrick Ward, Fred Jackson
WR: Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Dwayne Bowe, Antonio Bryant, Kenny Britt
TE: Owen Daniels
K: Kris Brown
DEF/ST: Eagles

My QBs are poor, perhaps the worst in the league but I’m going to try to maneuver a trade. There are guys with a few quality QB options so I’ll look at them first, especially if those teams get off to poor starts. My RB group is solid. Jackson is a prime RB1 and I just need one of the 3 RB2s to step up and I think I’ll field an above average RB lineup. My WRs are the best in the league. I have an elite WR1, a low end WR1 with high end WR1 upside, and two solid WR2s. That is pretty awesome and that has me so confident for this seasons. I think I have an average TE, and an average kicker, and above average defense. Overall, I’m thrilled with this draft. From scanning other teams’ rosters, I think there are only two that can challenge me.